Carolina Panthers

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS): Sean Payton did the impossible in New Orleans last season, turning a moribund 3-13 team into a Super Bowl contender. With the return of QB Drew Brees, twin RB threats Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush, and emerging WR star Marques Colston, the offense is lethal. The defense also showed improvement under first year coordinator Gary Gibbs but lacked aggression, finishing 31st in the NFL in takeaways in 2006. The line, led by Charles Grant and Will Smith, is solid but the Saints need more big-play potential at linebacker and in the secondary. Still, an offense as potent as New Orleans’ will win a lot of games.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 64-80

ATS: 69-72-3

HF: 14-24-1

HD: 10-16-2

AF: 9-6

AD: 32-25

Sportsbook Buster: The Saints are 8-2 ATS their last 10 games versus the 49ers, who they play in San Francisco, Oct. 28.

NFL Betting Angle: New Orleans has been a miserable bet at home, compiling just a 24-40-3 record ATS the last nine seasons.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (8-8 SU, 5-9-2 ATS): Injuries ravaged the Panthers and the team that made it to the Super Bowl a year earlier couldn’t even make to a winning record in 2006. The offense struggled last year with inconsistent play from QB Jake Delhomme and a ground game that finished 24th in the NFL, prompting Head Coach John Fox to fire offensive coordinator Dan Henning and replace him with Jeff Davidson. The Carolina defense was as good as the offense was bad last year with DE Julius Peppers leading the way. The Panthers also have a quality secondary and hope that No. 1 draft choice Jon Beason (Miami) will be the playmaker they need at linebacker.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 64-80

ATS: 71-66-7

HF: 20-27-1

HD: 13-9-2

AF: 8-12-1

AD: 27-19-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Panthers are 6-0 ATS versus the Saints, their last half-dozen meetings.

NFL Betting Angle: Carolina is 3-12 ATS as a favorite of between four and seven points.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-12 SU, 6-9-1 ATS): While the Saints were going from worst to first, the Buccaneers were heading in the opposite direction, from first to worst last year. Head Coach Jon Gruden hopes that savvy QB Jeff Garcia, who the Buccaneers acquired through free agency, will be able to run his complex West Coast offense with more precision than Chris Simms or Bruce Gradkowski did in 2006. Tampa Bay has gotten old on defense, falling from the top 10 in the league for the first time in a decade last season while ranking 31st in sacks with just 25.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 77-67

ATS: 69-69-6

HF: 30-26-2

HD: 9-2-1

AF: 15-18

AD: 15-21-2

Sportsbook Buster: The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS versus the Rams, who they play at home, Sept. 23.

NFL Betting Angle: Tampa Bay was 3-1 ATS last year and is 9-2-1 ATS the last nine seasons in the role of a home underdog.

ATLANTA FALCONS (7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS): The Falcons didn’t figure to be a playoff contender with QB Mike Vick so their fortunes are even dimmer now that Vick is likely to miss the season defending himself against a federal indictment for dog-fighting sand gambling. New Head Coach Bobby Petrino will have to overhaul an offense that has been dependent on Vick since his arrival in Atlanta seven years ago. The defense, which played well last year, gets a new coordinator in Mike Zimmer, from Dallas.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2002-2006)

SU: 70-73-1

ATS: 68-70-6

HF: 22-21-2

HD: 10-17

AF: 9-6-1

AD: 27-26-3

Sportsbook Buster: The Falcons are 4-0 ATS versus the Lions at home their last four meetings. The teams meet in Tampa Bay, Nov. 11.

NFL Betting Angle: Atlanta is 9-2 as an underdog after a bye week. This year, Atlanta travels to Tampa Bay, Nov. 4, after its open week.

Legend:

SU = Straight Up

ATS = Against the Spread

HF = Home Favorite

HD = Home Underdog

AF = Away Favorite

AD = Away Underdog

Seventh of an eight-part NFL betting preview series

Next: Analyzing the NFC West





By: Karol Lucan